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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index ETF (SOXX) gained 51% after a gain of 62% the year before. SOXX, an ETF consisting of up to 30 different companies.

The 30 companies are （☆は、個別記事あり）

☆Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD),

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO),

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM),

Intel Corp. (INTC),

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN),

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA),

Micron Technology Inc. (MU),

Xilinx Inc. (XLNX),

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI),

NXP semiconductors (NXPI),

Lam Research Corp. (LRCX),

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT),

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM),

ASML Holding (ASML),

Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP),

KLA Corp. (KLAC),

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS),

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL),

ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON),

Qorvo (QRVO),

Teradyne Inc. (TER),

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR),

Entegris Inc. (ENTG),

Cree Inc. (CREE),

MKS Instruments Inc. (MKSI),

Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB),

Inphi Corp. (IPHI),

Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC),

Brooks Automation Inc. (BRKS)

CMC Materials (CCMP).

Source: iShares With stocks going up, so too have valuations SOXX has posted annual gains of 51% and 62% in the last two years. But the flip side of having gained so much is that valuations have risen going into 2021. In addition, while many have backed up their stock gains with strong growth in terms of revenue or earnings, not all have done so.

(Creeは株価は上昇してるけど、TOP Line/Bottom Lineともに縮小）

For instance, Cree is one of the companies to have more than doubled in value in 2020 as mentioned earlier. But while the stock may have done great, the same can not be said of the company's top and bottom lines. Revenue, EBITDA and EPS all shrank in 2020.

The company may be seen as a beneficiary of the boom in electrical vehicles, but it's hard to argue how Cree's valuations can be justified as long as this remains the case.

There were a number of major semiconductor deals in 2020 and they turned out to be pricey for the most part. For instance, AMD announced last October the all-stock acquisition of Xilinx valued at $35B, which is roughly equal to 11 times sales.

That same month, Marvell decided to acquire Inphi Corp. in a cash and stock deal worth about $10B, which means the latter is valued at about 16-17 times sales. As mentioned previously, Inphi was one of the handful of semiconductor companies to have appreciated in the triple digits in 2020.

Part of the reason why is because of its turbocharged growth. Inphi has managed to double its revenue in each of the last two quarters. Nevertheless, an argument can be made that 17 times sales is a steep price to pay despite all the other merits the deal may have. To see how much prices have risen, it's necessary to put them into perspective.

For instance, Microchip acquired Microsemi in early 2018 before semis went on their bull run over the last two years. The deal had an enterprise value of $10.15B with $8.35B consisting of cash. Microchip paid about 5 times sales at the time, but the acquisition still proved to weigh heavily on the company as elaborated further in another article.

Fast forward two years and companies are now paying two to three times as much. The risk with spending so heavily on acquisitions is that companies like AMD and Marvell could be overpaying at a time when valuations have exploded higher. Many acquisitions turn out to be a mistake in hindsight and only time can tell if the same holds true for recent acquisitions.

An inventory correction could be looming in 2021 While stock prices may have jumped in the last two years, the semiconductor industry as a whole has not done quite as well. Worldwide semiconductor revenue is projected to have grown by 5.1% to $433B in 2020 as shown in the table below. However, that's still below the peak of $468.8B reached in 2018. In 2021, revenue is forecast to increase by 8.4% to $469.4B or slightly above the current high. Worldwide semiconductor revenue 2021 (estimate) $469.4B 2020 (estimate) $433.0B 2019 $412.3B 2018 $468.8B 2017 $412.2B 2016 $338.9B 2015 $335.2B 2014 $335.8B 2013 $305.6B 2012 $291.6B 2011 $299.5B 2010 $298.3B Sour Ma 5

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